Pre-registration of Studies
Advanced Statistical Methods
Locking In Hypotheses Before Seeing Results
Pre-registration documents research plans, hypotheses, and analysis strategies before data collection, preventing post-hoc hypothesizing and HARKing. It separates confirmatory from exploratory research.
- Clinical trials — Prevent outcome switching by registering primary endpoints in advance
- Social sciences — Distinguish planned analyses from exploratory fishing expeditions
- Drug development — Provide regulatory assurance that trial results are not selectively reported
Pre-registration makes the boundary between prediction and postdiction crystal clear.
Pre-registration is the practice of documenting a study's hypotheses, design, analysis plan, and any deviations from standard protocols in a time-stamped, publicly accessible registry before data collection begins.
What to Pre-register
Exploratory vs. Confirmatory Analysis
Mathematical Framework: Decision Theory for Pre-registration
The key insight is that pre-registration reduces flexibility but increases credibility. The net value depends on the field's replication norms and the study's stakes.
OSF Pre-registration
The Open Science Framework (OSF) is the most widely used pre-registration platform.
Power Analysis for Pre-registration
Python Implementation: Pre-registration Template Generator
Threats to Pre-registration
Pre-registration Platforms
Evaluating Pre-registration Quality
Higher completeness is associated with more rigorous research practices, though quality of specification matters more than mere presence of items.